[Reports] 2050 Climate Neutrality Roadmap for Korea: K-Map Scenario
PrefaceThe global race to net zero is speeding up. The US has rejoined the Paris Agreement while the EU has laid out its European Green Deal, which aims to mobilize at least €1 trillion up to 2030 for climate mitigation measures. As of February 2022, more than 120 nations had increased their NDC targets for 2030, while countries emitting about 70% of global greenhouse emissions have avowed to achieve net zero by 2050 or soon after. Just three years after Greta Thunberg’s School Strike in September 2018, powerful momentum for change has developed in international climate policy. South Korea (hereinafter Korea) has also joined the race. In October 2020 Korea pledged to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, backing up this commitment in October 2021 by announcing its 2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario and revised NDC for 2030. This is remarkable progress, especially considering the country had been criticized in the past as a climate villain by the international community. However, Korean commentators and international organizations have noted that the Korean NDC target for 2030 – which relies on international carbon credits, as well as CCUS – is insufficient and incompatible with the 1.5°C target set forth by the Paris Agreement. In addition, while targets are important, a concrete implementation pathway for Korea that is undergirded by sound policy instruments has been lacking to date. Against this backdrop, three leading Korean climate and energy think-tanks – the Green Energy Strategy Institute, Institute for Green Transformation, and NEXT Group – have developed a detailed and ambitious climate neutrality roadmap for Korea – the so-called K-Map. The research for this roadmap was performed in partnership with Agora Energiewende and in close consultation with various expert organizations in Germany, in order to incorporate the most recent lessons learned from Europe. This research finds that Korea can avoid more than 1.6 gigatons of additional emissions cumulatively by 2050 compared to the government plan with domestic endeavours alone. In doing so, Korea would not only honour its international obligations to protect the climate, but also avoid passing the buck to future generations. With less than eight years to 2030, the next Korean administration that takes office in spring 2022 has a journey of great importance to undertake. We hope this study will help Korean policymakers successfully navigate the challenges ahead. Key Findings at a Glance 1. Korea can achieve net zero by 2050 with a significant increase in renewables deployment, improved energy efficiency, the gradual electrification of enduse sectors, and reliance on green hydrogen where direct electrification is not possible. An interim target of at least 53% renewables in power generation is required in 2030 to transition to an 84% share by 2050. Coal power plants must be phased out by 2035; natural gas power plants by 2045. The gradual electrification of heat, transport, and industry, as well as various flexibility options (such as storage and demand-side flexibility) will facilitate the deployment of renewables while reducing emissions to net zero by 2050. 2. On the road to climate neutrality by 2050, Korea should adopt a more ambitious 2030 target and accelerate its domestic efforts while avoiding reliance on international carbon credits. It should also focus on domestic renewables expansion, rather than on CCUS. This would better align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target while also enabling a smoother path to climate neutrality by 2050. 3. Korea has to kick-start enhanced climate action as soon as possible. The new administration needs to focus on key strategic action areas, including the rapid expansion of renewable energy (such that wind and solar power are expanded by 18 GW annually); the promotion of electric vehicles (such that 10 million EVs are on the road by 2030); the accelerated energy refurbishment of buildings, including a heating fuel switch (with 1.4 million heat pumps installed by 2030); the development of a hydrogen infrastructure where direct electrification is not possible; the rapid deployment of livestock manure fermentation facilities; and a strengthening of the Emissions Trading Scheme in the power and industrial sectors. 4. The path to climate neutrality will require a comprehensive investment program similar to the Miracle on the Han River period. Investing a total of 1 300 trillion KRW by 2050, or 45 trillion KRW annually (2.5% of Korea’s real 2020 GDP), will not only substantially reduce emissions, but also provide a strong boost to the national economy and, last but not least, improve quality of life for Korea’s citizens by reducing noise and air pollution.
2022.02.17 / NEXT Group et al
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