This study presents an optimized coal phase-out roadmap that enables coal-fired power plants to maintain economic viability during their remaining operational period. By doing so, it aims to reduce uncertainties and financial risks associated with coal plant operations and contribute to accelerating the transition toward renewable energy.
NEXT Electricity Outlook Part 1 projected that the economic feasibility of coal-fired power generation will deteriorate as utilization rates decline in the coming years. Building on this, Part 2 proposes an optimal coal phase-out roadmap that allows coal plants to remain economically viable while in operation, thereby mitigating uncertainties and economic risks and supporting a smoother shift toward renewable energy.
The introduction reviews the current status of coal-fired power generation in Korea and confirms that, in the absence of policy improvements, operating conditions have further worsened. The study then derives an optimal coal reduction pathway for greenhouse gas mitigation. To realistically reflect current conditions, the analysis incorporates scenarios that examine how climate targets and the pace of renewable energy deployment influence the coal phase-out pathway.
The key messages from the scenario analysis are summarized as follows:
Key Messages
- If the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand remains unchanged, most coal-fired power plants will lose economic viability after 2035.
- Failure to achieve national renewable energy targets will make coal plant shutdowns unavoidable to meet greenhouse gas reduction goals.
- If the fuel conversion plans under the 11th Basic Plan are revised, complete coal phase-out could be achieved before 2035.
- Expanding renewable energy is a more cost-effective long-term strategy than continuing to operate coal-fired power plants.
- Coal–ammonia co-firing is ineffective, and current conversion plans should be reconsidered.